Everybody knows campuses are hotbeds of sexual assault fueled by a rampant rape culture. As is often the case, what everybody knows is wrong, at least as far as can be determined by an objective evaluation of the best available evidence.
Before we get into looking at this topic, many readers will want to take a deep breath. This examination is not going to discuss feminism or patriarchy. It is not going to attempt, as some writers have, to draw parallels with historical hysterias, such as the McCarthy daycare child abuse cases of the 1990s. It is not going to attempt to unpack rap lyrics, excuse rapists or condemn victims.
It will report on objective measurements of actual events — specifically, sexual assaults — rather than subjective observations of the extent and virulence of rape culture. And it will draw exclusively on authoritative, objective, unbiased sources of information prepared by highly skilled, experienced and reputable professional social scientists with no discernible ax to grind.
I hope you will relax now. I’m not going to say there is no rape culture on campus. No doubt, there is a rape culture on campus. However, it is equally clear that there is an anti-rape culture on campus as well as off. And when we look at what is happening in the realm of actual events — I am talking here about the number of sexual assaults that occur everywhere in our society and also the relative likelihood that a woman on a college campus will be sexually assaulted — it seems likely that anti-rape culture is considerably more powerful than rape culture. In short, whatever rape culture is or is responsible for, it doesn’t seem to be producing more rapes. Rape is, rather, declining very significantly.
Nor am I going to analyze the widely disseminated statement that 1 in 4 college women is sexually assaulted. If you’re interested in that, you may wish to read what the Washington Post said. I’m taking a different tack, one that I have not seen published anywhere else.
Let’s start with the overall incidence of rape. Over the last two decades the likelihood of an American woman being raped has fallen by about two-thirds. Many people find this statement surprising and questionable. However, it is well-supported.
Skeptics’ first complaint about this statement usually is that rape is highly underreported. That is true. However, the evidence of a decline in incidence of sexual assault is not based on reported rapes. This evidence comes from the National Crime Victimization Survey, which has been done annually by the Bureau of Justice Statistics for many years. It involves surveying a representative sample of Americans, then using those results to prepare estimates of crime victimization rates and trends. It does not measure crimes reported to police, but instead counts crimes both reported and unreported by asking people via anonymous surveys about their experiences with crime.
Here’s what that survey finds: “From 1995 to 2010, the estimated annual rate of female rape or sexual assault victimizations declined 58%, from 5.0 victimizations per 1,000 females age 12 or older to 2.1 per 1,000.”
That is a direct quote from the summary of “Female Victims of Sexual Violence, 1994-2010, “ a 2013 report by a team of Bureau of Justice Statistics researchers based on the National Crime Victimization Survey results. The researchers are all Ph.D.s in criminology and related fields. This is an objective, authoritative, reliable source. It is, in fact, the gold standard of crime data sources. All told, it is reasonable to conclude that the incidence of sexual assault has declined very significantly since 1994, probably about two-thirds unless the trends of recent years have stopped or reversed.
Now let’s go to college. Equally authoritative evidence shows that female college students are significantly less likely to experience sexual violence than women of the same age who are not in college. The data here is not as recent as the data on overall incidence of sexual violence, dating from 1995 to 2002. But the findings are clear. Here is a direct quote from the summary of “Violent Victimization of College Students, 1995-2002,” a 2005 report by the Bureau of Justice Statistics: “On average, from 1995 to 2002, comparing persons ages 18-24, female nonstudents were over 1.5 times more likely than college students to be a victim of a violent crime (71 versus 43 per 1,000).”
The college student violence study also shows that during the study period the rate of violent crime on campus fell. The authors wrote, “Between 1995 and 2002 rates of both overall and serious violence declined for college students and nonstudents. The violent crime rate for college students declined 54% (41 versus 88 per 1,000) and for nonstudents declined 45% (102 versus 56 per 1,000).”
Similar declines in violence of many types throughout American society have been observed during the last two decades. What’s causing it is not clear. Many explanations have been advanced, from tougher sentencing for drug crimes to an aging population, but attempts to zero in on the most powerful factors have not been conclusive.
Whatever the cause, it seems very likely, if not indisputable, that women are safer on campus than off, and also that sexual assault of women overall is on a long-term steady and significant decline, such that women today are about one-third as likely to experience sexual assault as women of a couple of decades ago. Beyond any doubt, many people are resistant to these findings. However, just as men are told that “no means no,” those who see a rampant rape culture fueling a rising epidemic of on-campus sexual violence targeting women might be well advised to consider that “facts are facts.”
It’s also a fact that sexual violence is a serious crime that occurs both on-campus and off far more often than any reasonable person finds acceptable. However, if we are to make responsible choices as a society about what problems to focus our efforts on, does it make sense to focus on problems that are already declining rapidly, and to focus on places where these problems are less likely to occur than elsewhere? Personally, I don’t think it does.
And I don’t think college is where sexual assault prevention should focus. The 2013 BJS study on sexual violence against females identified places and situations where women are at higher risk of sexual assault than on college campuses. Specifically, the authors write, “In 2005-10, females who were age 34 or younger, who lived in lower income households, and who lived in rural areas experienced some of the highest rates of sexual violence.”
So should we be focusing our sexual violence-prevention attentions on, say, trailer parks instead of dormitories? Again, personally, I tend to lean toward protecting the weak from the strong, not piling up protections for people who are already well-provided for at the expense of those less able to fend for themselves. What do you think? Do you think it’s worthwhile for people to know that sexual assault is a shrinking crime and that campuses are safer than other places? Should we increase protection for relatively more secure college women at the expense of more at-risk lower-income rural women? If so, why?
Things Everybody Knows 